Murray vs. Djokovic: The Statistical Match-Up

This year at Wimbledon has been full of upsets, injuries and headlines. Nadal out in the first round. Federer out one round later and making more headlines with his shoes than his game.


Ultimately, as we enter the second week, the draw looks tilted towards both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic.

Currently, bookies odds on a Murray-Djokovic final are 4/9 (or 69% in probability).

Djokovic, the number 1 seed, remains the bookmakers favourite at 5/6 (54.5% probability), with Murray, the 2 seed, a clear second favourite at 5/4 (44.4% probability).

The next highest odds? 24th seeded Jerzy Janowicz at 22/1. The Pole, who has never made it past the 3rd round of a major, has a probability (according to the bookies) of winning this year’s Wimbledon of a shade over 4%.

So how have Murray and Djokovic performed thus far?

Well neither has lost a set through the first four rounds. Combined, they have lost just 6 of 116 service games (Murray broken 4 times, Novak twice).


Murray and Djokovic have faced each other to decide two of the last three majors (each winning one), and eight finals all together (each winning four). In total, they have played 18 times. Novak holds an 11-7 lead in the series but Murray won their only meeting on grass.

One area Murray will certainly have to improve: his serving.

In his last match, he won just 40% of his second serve points averaging just 78 mph. To put that in perspective, in Laura Robson’s last match, she averaged 88 mph.

For the tournament, Murray has won just 53% of all points on his second serve, whilst Novak Djokovic is winning more than 71% of his second serve points.

Murray is exactly seven days older than Djokovic, so if the final comes to down to experience, Andy is clearly going to have the edge!


About jamieonsport

My name is Jamie and I have been addicted to sports since I was 6. As a method of self-prescribed medication for the illness, I thought it would be good to detail my thoughts on the sporting world. So welcome to the workings of my inner-monologue. Join in, ignore, share, laugh, cry, be offended, be inspired, take my ranting however you will, but thanks for checking in.
This entry was posted in Tennis. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s